Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 37.307773 40.606093 44.271246 48.689604 53.932380 60.035801 67.804598
2025-08-24 31.911094 36.033529 40.934411 47.328200 55.675687 66.568818 82.572123
2025-08-31 30.131916 34.956400 40.991769 49.378824 61.261555 78.508660 107.941475
2025-09-07 27.642945 32.578665 38.943232 48.140511 61.884777 83.372545 124.545984
2025-09-14 25.765292 30.746097 37.326384 47.146133 62.503752 88.174059 143.284412
2025-09-21 23.804611 28.619627 35.075082 44.902174 60.722835 88.366414 152.730867
2025-09-28 22.739857 27.604069 34.251134 44.639594 62.033677 94.388784 179.634733
2025-10-05 22.720781 27.997404 35.428066 47.545880 69.220497 114.326092 267.715109
2025-10-12 21.747822 26.978093 34.443891 46.860341 69.781917 120.288484 320.155478
2025-10-19 21.155227 26.458011 34.154527 47.273098 72.494727 132.530280 433.602700
2025-10-26 20.927939 26.443898 34.621115 49.010701 78.228518 155.958509 761.072362
2025-11-02 20.396965 25.946587 34.289401 49.288971 80.925993 172.397507 1306.104626
2025-11-09 19.312328 24.704189 32.904999 47.920313 80.657307 182.876974 2630.421454
2025-11-16 18.301197 23.535623 31.586663 46.591326 80.403487 194.921442 13015.875575
2025-11-23 18.018197 23.442995 31.995832 48.586260 88.989764 258.308983 NaN
2025-11-30 17.211881 22.485722 30.873796 47.381875 88.776992 278.554330 NaN
2025-12-07 16.520735 21.668821 29.927306 46.414297 88.993442 304.121887 NaN
2025-12-14 15.690728 20.593466 28.469336 44.229332 85.130453 295.287726 NaN
2025-12-21 15.230907 20.082325 27.953922 43.973519 87.063540 339.242802 NaN
2025-12-28 15.264452 20.355237 28.821636 46.803319 99.990930 575.834367 NaN
2026-01-04 14.798367 19.794109 28.158559 46.136134 100.803763 671.732985 NaN
2026-01-11 14.508189 19.506270 27.970668 46.537863 105.824489 965.131512 NaN
2026-01-18 14.397216 19.506345 28.308323 48.228283 117.019474 2334.845709 NaN